The Golden Globes: Favorites and Longshots

By Sam Brand Posted Jan 17th 2010 09:40AM

What's Sandra Bullock going to wear tonight?! You should be thinking about more important things, like how you're going to make money off tonight's Golden Globes. Who is Vegas picking to win Best Picture (Drama)? That would be 'Avatar' & 'Up in the Air.' But we don't think that's where the smart money is. The odds are out, the favorites are marked, and a few underdogs are poised to make a surprise stand at the podium at tonight's show...

BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

Favorite: Tie: 'Avatar' & 'Up in the Air' (+100)

Smart Bet: 'Inglourious Basterds' (+900) – Look, you can put your money on 'Avatar.' That would be the safe bet. But life is about taking chances and making money. It's smart to live a little. 'Inglourious Basterds' is a pretentious globetrotting movie about war movies. The Hollywood Foreign Press is a pretentious international body of movie critics. Take the dark horse here.

BEST MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)

Favorite: 'Nine' (-130)

Smart Bet: 'Nine' (-130) – As unwatchable as this box office bomb is, the movie has international appeal. Foreign critics were positive on it. And it is a musical, which gives it the edge in this highly competitve category.

BEST DIRECTOR

Favorite: Kathryn Bigelow – 'The Hurt Locker' (-125)

Smart Bet: Kathryn Bigelow – 'The Hurt Locker' (-125) – A woman hasn't won a Golden Globe for Best Director since Barbra Streisand won for 'Yentl' in 1983. We think Bigelow is due. But don't be surprised if second favorite James Cameron (+105) sneaks up to the podium tonight for helming the beloved next-gen action-epic 'Avatar.'

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

Favorite: George Clooney – 'Up in the Air' (-135)

Smart Bet: George Clooney – 'Up in the Air' (-135) – Clooney won't win this award because his performance was off the charts. He'll win it because his competition is lackluster. Did anyone even see second favorite Jeff Bridges' 'Crazy Heart?' (+130).

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Favorite: Sandra Bullock – 'The Blind Side' (+100)

Smart Bet: Carey Mulligan – 'An Education' (+150) – When the world thinks "football," it thinks David Beckham, hooligans and, well, feet. Critics adored 'An Education' and this is the Brit flick's chance to take home some hardware.

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY)

Favorite: Daniel Day-Lewis – 'Nine' (-170)

Smart Bet: Robert Downey, Jr. – 'Sherlock Holmes' (+100) – Daniel Day-Lewis always wins. And he doesn't deserve to win for over-acting in a miscast "Guido Contini." RDJ is more deserving. And his movie is infinitely more watchable than 'Nine.'

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY)

Favorite: Meryl Streep – 'Julie and Julia' (-2000)

Smart Bet: Meryl Streep – 'Julie and Julia (-2000) – As is the case in each of the final three categories here, the favorite is a lock. You'd have to bet $2,000 dollars to win $100 on the favorite, and well, you might as well just toss your cash in the trash if you're to put your money anywhere else. Streep has this category locked down for her stellar portayal of Julia Child. She makes an otherwise undercooked movie sizzle.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Favorite: Christoph Waltz – 'Inglourious Basterds' (-2000)

Smart Bet: Christoph Waltz – 'Inglourious Basterds' (-2000) – This is probably the safest bet of the 2010 Golden Globes. And the smartest. Christoph Waltz stole the show as stone-cold Nazi killer Hans "The Jew Hunter" Landa. He won this award at Cannes, he will certainly do so tonight, and if there's any justice in this world, he'll do so too at the Academy Awards in March.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Favorite: Mo'Nique – 'Precious' (-2000)

Smart Bet: Mo'Nique – 'Precious' (-2000) – Mo'Nique has worthy competition in 'A Single Man's' Julianne Moore (+600) and 'Up in the Air's' Vera Farmiga (+1000). But Mo'Nique deserves the award for putting forth an astounding effort in a movie full of superb acting. Her portrayal of Mary Lee Johnston is probably the best performance by any female on the big screen this year.

Check here for a full list of nominees. The 67^th Golden Globe Awards is hosted by Ricky Gervais and will be telecast live on NBC at 8 p.m. EST.

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